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Author Topic: An Attempt at Handicapping Saturday Night at Richmond  (Read 849 times)
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jw
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« on: September 09, 2004, 07:25:40 PM »

This is very difficult to figure exactly, but here it is:

  The Known
  -------------
  Already In:  Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr.,
  Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth & Elliot Sadler

  Now for the Fun Part
  ------------------------
   7. Kurt Busch-He's in UNLESS he is 43rd.  Only Jamie McMurray can eliminate Busch IF McMurray wins Saturday & gets maximum points. That
means McMurray must win, lead a lap bonus AND most laps led bonus.
Nobody below McMurray can mathmatically catch Busch.
  8. Ryan Newman-Must finish 7th or better to qualify OR Newman needs
the following to happen
Stays within 3 spots of Kahne & 4 spots of Martin
Jamie McMurray-not to finish 15 spots ahead
Bobby Labonte-not to finish 18 spots ahead
Dale Jarrett-not to finish 21 spots ahead
Jeremy Mayfield & Kevin Harvick-not to finish 24 spots ahead
  9. Kasey Kahne-4th or better to qualify or Kahne needs the following
to happen
Stays within 2 or 3 spots of Martin
McMurray-not to finish 9 spots ahead
Labonte-not to finish at least 11 spots ahead
Jarrett-not to finish at least 14 spots ahead
Mayfield/Harvick-not to finish at least 18 spots ahead
 10. Mark Martin-3rd or better or Martin needs the following to happen
McMurray-not to finish at least 6 spots ahead
Labonte-not to finish at least 9 spots ahead
Jarrett-not to finish at least 11 spots ahead
Mayfield/Harvick-not to finish at least 14 spots ahead

If Johnson & Gordon BOTH have early exits, the possibility of more than
10 drivers getting in exists.  I will try to figure out who & have it tomorrow.
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Vivian
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2004, 09:17:51 PM »

JW, you are absolutely wonderful with this stuff.  Thank you for the info.  I will be watching positions of my favs much closer now in comparison with those who could beat them.  In fact I am printing your info and taking it home so I can use it as the race goes.  However, I will also be taking notes for the review so may not get to use it as much as I would like.

BTW, at the end of race 36 will you be figuring out who would have been the top 10 under the old system?

Again, thanks.   Smiley
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sally
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2004, 09:26:00 PM »

And people (media) complained that the OLD system was too complicated?  Oy.
Sally
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John
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WWW
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2004, 10:32:42 PM »

Thanks JW.  I love stuff like this.  I'm going to take your info and do a spreadsheet to keep in front of me Saturday night for quick reference.

I know it's not a favorite topic of discussion here, but this is why TV gives attention to the drivers who are in contention for the Chase.  There are so many different situations that could happen.  With one race to go, I bet that chart (If The Race Ended Now) will be up most of the race.  Mark my words!
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ommy Baldwin after Tropicana 400:  "This is NASCAR's world, we just live in it."
sally
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2004, 01:16:10 AM »

Oh goody.  More screen space wasted on stats that mean nothing!  What more could a race fan want?
Sally
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John
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WWW
« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2004, 01:37:40 AM »

Quote from: "sally"
Oh goody.  More screen space wasted on stats that mean nothing!  What more could a race fan want?
Sally


I knew you would, Sally.
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ommy Baldwin after Tropicana 400:  "This is NASCAR's world, we just live in it."
John
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WWW
« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2004, 01:42:36 AM »

JW, I just want to check something with you.  You said about Kurt Busch that only Jamie McMurray can eliminiate him if he wins and gets max. points.  I didn't put pencil to paper but, couldn't Newman, Kahne and Martin do the same thing and not Labonte, Jarrett, Mayfield and Harvick?

I see Jayski has it figured out that Johnson would have to finish 18th or worse and Gordon 9th or worse as well as a less than dominating race by Jr could bring in 15 cars in for the chase.
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ommy Baldwin after Tropicana 400:  "This is NASCAR's world, we just live in it."
sally
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2004, 11:35:52 AM »

John, at least I have to get credit for consistancy, don't I?

Sally :wink:
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jw
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2004, 07:37:51 PM »

Point of Clarification On Busch:
------------------------------------
 If Kurt Busch finishes 43rd:  Newman, Kahne & Martin does pass Busch
Putting Kurt to 10th.  Jamie McMurray will start the night 153 pts. behind
Busch.  Jamie will need the maximum point swing of 156 to send Kurt
outside the Top 10.  

Now for The Wildcards (More than 10)
-------------------------------------------
*The following is with the assumption that either Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon is the points leader after Richmond.

First, Jimmie Johnson
------------------------
Johnson Finishing 15th/16th: Jamie McMurray will have to finish 3rd(w/bonus pts.) or higher to get in under the 400 pt. window.
Johnson finishing 18th: McMurray-Top 5 finish(5th w/bonus pts.)
Bobby Labonte-Top 3(3rd w/bonus pts)
Johnson finishing 21st: McMurray needs 6th/7th(bonus pts)
Labonte needs 4th/5th(bonus pts)
Dale Jarrett needs 2nd/3rd(bonus pts)
Johnson would have to finish 25th & lead the points for Jeremy Mayfield
& Kevin Harvick to have a change.  Mayfield needs 3rd/2nd(bonus pts)
& Harvick needs 1st or 2nd.
*All of this assuming Johnson is still the points leader & Jeff Gordon does
not finish in the Top 10.  

Jeff Gordon leading the points
-----------------------------------
No Wildcards if Gordon wins.

Gordon finishing 7th: McMurray will have to finish ahead of Gordon to
get in under the 400 pt. window.  Labonte needs 5th(bonus pts) or higher,
Jarrett needs 3rd or higher, Mayfield needs race win
Gordon finishing 8th: McMurray finish ahead of Gordon, Labonte needs
6th(bonus pts) or higher, Jarrett needs 4th or higher, Mayfield needs 2nd
(bonus pts), Harvick needs race win
Gordon finishing 9th: McMurray finish ahead of Gordon, Labonte needs
7th(bonus pts) or higher, Jarrett needs 6th(bonus pts) or higher, Mayfield
needs 3rd(bonus pts) or higher, Harvick 2nd or win
*This adjusts accordingly the farther Gordon goes down the final order
of finish.

  Quick Note if Earnhardt Jr becomes the points leader
Earmhardt Jr win-It will be easier for drivers in pos. 11-14 to make the
400 pts. window.  Harvick would have to finish 6th or Higher
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Vivian
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2004, 09:05:38 PM »

Wow!  Can you imagine what those announcers are going to go through and try to tell us Saturday night? We all will get so tired of hearing "If the race ended now..." that we will be ready to pull our hair out and throw stuff at the tv.  That is just my opinion and assumption.  I might have to mute the tv half the time.  They call it drama, but I am ready to call it an annoyance.  OTOH, maybe we will be surprised and they will just call it play by play and let the chips fall.   :roll:   Not....

Oh, Moderator!  Please let us rant a little/lot this time, please.  If we need to after the race?  I promise not to bash or get upset at my fellow members regardless of what is said.  In fact, maybe we could have a pact between us that we won't get upset with one another if we get to upset at the broadcast content and say stuff that we normally wouldn't say?  Tongue

JW, thanks again.  That information means a lot and I will keep a close eye on all of it as I am sure others will.
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sally
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2004, 09:13:54 PM »

I agree, Viv.  I find I'm already sick of the "who's number 10" (or 7th or 15th) that has been bombarding me the past several weeks.  I can only hope that, once Richmond is over, this type of hype ends!!  Please!!!
Sally :roll:
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